Swinging at the first pitch

ince posting about the marshmallow test the other day, I've given it some more thought. Taking the first offer of a marshmallow is akin to taking the first pitch. (I know, a baseball metaphor, shocking.) And good hitters take the first pitch, right?

Not Derek Jeter. Jeter has 3,238 hits and counting. His lifetime average is .313. His lifetime average when he swings at the first pitch? .381. Significantly better. This is also true of Tony Gwynn (.338/.375), Wade Boggs (.328/.362), Albert Pujols (.325/.370), Miguel Cabrera (.317/.406) and Ichiro Suzuki (.322/.382). Even Don Mattingly, who seemed to take the first pitch religiously, did better (.307/.363). So why doesn't Jeter swing at the first pitch every time? Because if he did word would get around and pitchers would intentionally throw junk out of the strike zone for him to chase.

604 of Jeter's 3,238 hits (18.6%) have come on the first pitch. So when does he know it's a good idea to swing at the first pitch? As someone who tends to hit first or second in the lineup, part of his job the first time up is to take pitches so his whole team can see what the pitcher has. So maybe he takes the first pitch in the first inning more often than not. But when would he swing at the first pitch in the first inning? If he and his teammates are familiar with the pitcher or if there's a nervous rookie on the hill who just wants to throw strikes and not plunk the mascot.

So then Jeter's going to swing at the first pitch later in the game then, maybe the third time he's seen the pitcher because by then, we can assume, the team has a better idea of what to expect, so DJ can swing away. Perhaps. But later in the game, the pitcher's more tired. Maybe Jeter takes the first pitch to wear the pitcher down. Or, being tired, the pitcher throws more first pitch strikes for hitters like Jeter to pounce on.

In short, Jeter's no fool. He's likely done his homework and put his common sense to work to know when to swing at the first pitch based on statistical information and personal experience.

So when should Pablo take the first marshmallow offer? If he thinks the one offering it can only produce the one now and not the two later. If he thinks the one now will be fresh and the two later stale. Essentially, Pablo should take the first marshmallow if he doesn't trust the person offering it to come through with the second marshmallow.  Because why turn down a good offer for a less likely one? If he trusted the person to come through on the bigger payoff even if it meant he had to wait, he'd wait.

I presume that the person administering the marshmallow test in most cases is a well dressed adult who speaks well and appears credible. The kids who trust the tester wait for the second marshmallow. Maybe the kids who take the first marshmallow are impatient, short-term thinkers as they've been called. Maybe they don't trust the tester. Maybe they're just really hungry right now.

While I think the marshmallow test could use some more variables (namely, the presentation of the tester and the time when the test is given (is it right after lunch? has it been a while since the kids have eaten anything?), I do, on the whole, believe in its general finding that not jumping at the first thing offered is a good idea. Why? Because there's a lot of crap out there and as soon as people know you'll buy it without flinching or saying boo, they'll keep offering you more crap.

That being said, as someone who has personally far too often waited for the second marshmallow only for it never to arrive, the savvy child (or adult) should take each offer in context and not turn down the first marshmallow out of hand. Because you know Jeter would take that first marshmallow 18.6% of the time.